How to Handicap – A Beginners Guide to Super Bowl Wagering
Don’t know how to handicap? Learn how to think like the pros
The handicap experts often called “sharps,” sometimes use elaborate equipment to churn out statistics on teams and players in order to make their predictions. But even the general betting public and novice handicappers referred to as “squares,” can become quite skilled by learning and honing their techniques. The truth is that you don’t need fancy equipment churning out stats to be any good at handicapping, especially when you just want to try out some of your skills on exciting sporting events like the Super Bowl. While tools and experience give you an advantage, handicapping still comes down to skill.
What’s important to remember is that the dominating factor for handicapping is how you prepare to bet and not how much or how often you bet. As the Super Bowl draws near and bettors want to know how to handicap the game, there are some basic tips for analysis that can help you make your predictions.
It is important to analyze who will be playing on each team and if there are injuries impacting that lineup. Don’t just evaluate the key players like the QB, you should take every player and every position into consideration. Who is playing in the game? Are there players who will still sit out due to injuries? Are there players who received injuries in the gap from the regular season to the Super Bowl? Any change in a team’s lineup impacts the whole team dynamic.
This factor is easy to take for granted because it sounds insignificant, but smart handicappers know that the Super Bowl weather conditions can play a significant role in a team’s performance on the field. Is extreme weather in the forecast? Wind, rain, and snow are more than inconvenient, they can impact the number of points scored in the game. The stats show that more points are scored in snowy conditions but slippery conditions, also caused by snow and rain, can be problematic for the defense that is reacting quickly to the plays. The weather condition that can make the biggest impact on the game is wind. The unpredictability of wind in a moving weather system can destroy efforts in the passing game and kicking.
It happens every year after the regular season- coaching changes which mean the #2 guy are in charge and the players are understandably focused on their own futures. It is not uncommon for the NFL to have four to five coaching changes in one season. Every coach usually brings in his own staff, priorities, and players so this is a big consideration when evaluating the mindset of the team. Are they focused on the game or on the recent changes that could impact their playing future?
Home Field Advantage
Some teams excel at home, some away. This evaluation is important when considering how the home field advantage may or may not factor into the outcome of the game. Why? Comfort, crowd response, travel schedules, and time zones can impact players. While you might assume that the home team always has the advantage that’s not necessarily true especially if the team has had a season of losses when the home crowd may be unsupported.
While season play stats and things like weather can give you hard numbers to measure in handicapping, the intangible factors like motivation get a bit more complicated but are nonetheless essential to your analysis. You look for the details that can give you some indication into the mindset of individual players or the team as a whole. If a team that has made many trips to the Super Bowl is facing off against an underdog team that clawed its way to the top for a shot at the trophy, chances are likely that one team is hungry for the win and the other is complacent. Other motivational factors include team rivals, teams that may be resting their key players or teams that have faced off before.
Understand the odds
Learn how the Super Bowl odds are set so you have a basic knowledge of how your prediction might play into that. The oddsmakers generally favor the public opinion because there is a bigger pool of bettors than those who will strategically analyze the game and players. Therefore, the line is often inflated to reflect the popular sentiment.
Trust your skills
One of the most important things to remember as you learn how to handicap is to trust your skills. Yes, you will have a steep learning curve especially as you get started but eventually, you will come up with your own handicapping style. One of the best ways to improve is to ignore the handicapping predictions of others and go with your own analysis to predict the game outcome. This way you do not have established opinions pre-set in your mind.
Ready to try handicapping? The PostitPlayit platform is an easy way to do it. Do your handicapping analysis of the Super Bowl teams and players then choose your challenges, set your line and start putting your skills to good use. Since PostitPlayit is a peer-to-peer competition you don’t have to worry about being an expert, but just a passionate player.
Create your PostitPlayit profile now and use your skills to wager on the Super Bowl.